Today / Iceland - Úrvalsdeild / Hafnarfjordur vs Thor Akureyri

Hafnarfjordur vs Thor Akureyri Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Regular Season - 11 ·Sunday, June 21, 2026, 18:00

Hafnarfjordur

PPG 0.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Thor Akureyri

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.9% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-12.7%0-21.9%0-30.9%0-4+0.4%1 1-04.9%1-16.9%1-24.8%1-32.2%1-4+1.1%2 2-06.3%2-18.8%2-26.1%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-05.4%3-17.5%3-25.2%3-32.4%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-06.3%4+-18.8%4+-26.1%4+-32.8%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 55.6% 1.80 +0.1%

Draw 21.0% 4.10 -8.3%

Away win 23.4% 3.30 -13.7%

Over 2.5 65.9% 1.33 -12.3%

Over 3.5 43.0% 1.85 -20.4%

BTTS 63.4% 1.33 -15.7%

Win probability 1X2

Hafnarfjordur (H) 55.6%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV +0.1%

Draw 21.0%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -8.3%

Thor Akureyri (A) 23.4%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -13.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 79%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 21%

ROI -7.0%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 69%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.4%

H 56% / xG 2.6-1.4 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.8%

#2 1–1 6.9%

#3 3–1 7.5%

#4 2–0 6.3%

#5 2–2 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hafnarfjordur2.6

Thor Akureyri1.4

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.9% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

HAFNARFJORDUR · PPG 0.00

THOR AKUREYRI · PPG 0.60

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Match Preview & Prediction

Hafnarfjordur face Thor Akureyri in Iceland - Úrvalsdeild on Sunday, June 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hafnarfjordur a 56% chance, the draw 21% and Thor Akureyri 23%, so Hafnarfjordur are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Hafnarfjordur and 1.4 for Thor Akureyri (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hafnarfjordur are averaging 0.00 points per game versus 0.60 for Thor Akureyri. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +14.9%.

Hafnarfjordur vs Thor Akureyri Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Match Preview & Prediction

More Iceland - Úrvalsdeild Predictions