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Breidablik vs KA Akureyri Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Regular Season - 11 ·Sunday, June 21, 2026, 18:00

Breidablik

PPG 2.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

KA Akureyri

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 79.5% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.8%0-11.3%0-21.1%0-30.6%0-4+0.3%1 1-02.5%1-14.1%1-23.4%1-31.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-04.1%2-16.6%2-25.4%2-33.0%2-4+1.8%3 3-04.3%3-17.1%3-25.8%3-33.2%3-4+1.9%4+ 4+-07.7%4+-112.7%4+-210.4%4+-35.7%4+-4+3.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 63.4% 1.60 +1.4%

Draw 17.3% 4.50 -13.3%

Away win 19.3% 4.10 -12.5%

Over 2.5 79.5% 1.30 +3.4%

Over 3.5 53.2% 1.77 -5.8%

BTTS 68.4% 1.35 -7.7%

Win probability 1X2

Breidablik (H) 63.4%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV +1.4%

Draw 17.3%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -13.3%

KA Akureyri (A) 19.3%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -12.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 79%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 21%

ROI -7.0%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 75%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.2 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob68.4%

H 63% / xG 3.2-1.6 / O2.5 80% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.1%

#2 2–1 6.6%

#3 3–2 5.8%

#4 4–1 5.7%

#5 2–2 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Breidablik3.2

KA Akureyri1.6

COMBINED 4.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.5% · O3.5 PROB 53.2%

Form & verdict PPG

BREIDABLIK · PPG 2.50

KA AKUREYRI · PPG 1.75

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.50) > Away GOOD (1.75)

Match Preview & Prediction

Breidablik face KA Akureyri in Iceland - Úrvalsdeild on Sunday, June 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Breidablik a 63% chance, the draw 17% and KA Akureyri 19%, so Breidablik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.2 for Breidablik and 1.6 for KA Akureyri (4.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 80% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Breidablik are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.75 for KA Akureyri. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +21.8%.

Breidablik vs KA Akureyri Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Match Preview & Prediction

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