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D. Madryn vs Los Andes Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, June 21, 2026, 18:00

D. Madryn

PPG 1.63 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Los Andes

PPG 2.14 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-028.9%0-121.8%0-28.2%0-32.1%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.0%1-110.6%1-24.0%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-03.4%2-12.6%2-21.0%2-30.2%2-4+0.1%3 3-00.6%3-10.4%3-20.2%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.9% 43.5% 2.30 -28.4%

Draw 39.4% 37.0% 2.70 +6.4%

Away win 37.7% 29.9% 3.35 +26.3%

Over 2.5 29.6% 31.3% 3.20 -3.2%

Over 3.5 12.1% 14.3% 7.00 -9.2%

BTTS 43.2% 41.7% 2.40 +3.7%

Home O1.5 20.0% 32.3% 3.10 -22.8%

Away O1.5 23.2% 23.8% 4.20 -1.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 233 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 49%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)0.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob43.2%

A 38% / xG 0.5-0.8 / U2.5 30% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 28.9%

#2 0–1 21.8%

#3 1–0 14.0%

#4 1–1 10.6%

#5 0–2 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

D. Madryn0.5

Los Andes0.8

COMBINED 1.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 29.6% · O3.5 PROB 12.1%

Form & verdict PPG

D. MADRYN · PPG 1.63

LOS ANDES · PPG 2.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.14) vs Home GOOD (1.63)

Win probability 1X2

D. Madryn (H) 22.9%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -28.4%

Draw 39.4%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV +6.4%

Los Andes (A) 37.7%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +26.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

D. Madryn face Los Andes in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, June 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives D. Madryn a 23% chance, the draw 39% and Los Andes 38%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.5 for D. Madryn and 0.8 for Los Andes (1.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 30% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, D. Madryn are averaging 1.63 points per game versus 2.14 for Los Andes. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +26.3%. This match finished 2-1.

D. Madryn vs Los Andes Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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