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Ostersunds vs Norrkoping Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Regular Season - 13 ·Sunday, June 21, 2026, 15:00

Ostersunds

PPG 2.20 · HOME

UPCOMING

Norrkoping

PPG 1.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-111.0%0-28.0%0-33.9%0-4+1.9%1 1-08.6%1-112.4%1-29.0%1-34.4%1-4+2.2%2 2-04.8%2-17.0%2-25.1%2-32.5%2-4+1.2%3 3-01.8%3-12.6%3-21.9%3-30.9%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.9%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 31.1% 2.55 -20.7%

Draw 26.1% 3.55 -4.4%

Away win 42.9% 2.55 +9.4%

Over 2.5 53.0% 1.83 -3.0%

Over 3.5 29.9% 3.10 -4.4%

BTTS 55.9% 1.62 -9.4%

Win probability 1X2

Ostersunds (H) 31.1%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -20.7%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -4.4%

Norrkoping (A) 42.9%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +9.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -5.5%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob55.9%

A 43% / xG 1.1-1.5 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–0 7.6%

#3 0–1 11.0%

#4 1–2 9.0%

#5 0–2 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ostersunds1.1

Norrkoping1.5

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.0% · O3.5 PROB 29.9%

Form & verdict PPG

OSTERSUNDS · PPG 2.20

NORRKOPING · PPG 1.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.20) > Away GOOD (1.86)

Match Preview & Prediction

Ostersunds face Norrkoping in Sweden - Superettan on Sunday, June 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ostersunds a 31% chance, the draw 26% and Norrkoping 43%, so Norrkoping are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Ostersunds and 1.5 for Norrkoping (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ostersunds are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 1.86 for Norrkoping. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +9.4%.

Ostersunds vs Norrkoping Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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