Today / Sweden - Superettan / Norrby vs United Nordic

Norrby vs United Nordic Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Regular Season - 13 ·Sunday, June 21, 2026, 15:00

Norrby

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

United Nordic

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.1% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-17.3%0-25.9%0-33.1%0-4+1.8%1 1-06.8%1-110.9%1-28.7%1-34.7%1-4+2.7%2 2-05.0%2-18.0%2-26.5%2-33.5%2-4+2.0%3 3-02.5%3-14.0%3-23.2%3-31.7%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-12.0%4+-21.6%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 34.1% 2.70 -7.9%

Draw 24.2% 3.55 -8.5%

Away win 41.7% 2.40 +0.1%

Over 2.5 61.1% 1.67 +2.0%

Over 3.5 37.0% 2.65 -1.9%

BTTS 60.2% 1.53 -7.9%

Win probability 1X2

Norrby (H) 34.1%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -7.9%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -8.5%

United Nordic (A) 41.7%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +0.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -5.5%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 47%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob60.2%

A 42% / xG 1.5-1.6 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 2–1 8.0%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 0–0 4.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Norrby1.5

United Nordic1.6

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.1% · O3.5 PROB 37.0%

Form & verdict PPG

NORRBY · PPG 1.00

UNITED NORDIC · PPG 1.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.17)

Match Preview & Prediction

Norrby face United Nordic in Sweden - Superettan on Sunday, June 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Norrby a 34% chance, the draw 24% and United Nordic 42%, so United Nordic are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Norrby and 1.6 for United Nordic (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Norrby are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.17 for United Nordic. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +4.1%.

Norrby vs United Nordic Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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