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Riga FC vs Liepaja Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Matchday 19 ·Sunday, June 21, 2026, 15:00

Riga FC

PPG 2.56 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Liepaja

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 76.8% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-12.0%0-20.9%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-06.9%1-15.9%1-22.5%1-30.7%1-4+0.2%2 2-09.9%2-18.5%2-23.6%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-09.5%3-18.1%3-23.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-013.9%4+-111.9%4+-25.0%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.7% 75.2% 1.33 -14.0%

Draw 17.5% 20.8% 4.80 -9.6%

Away win 17.8% 13.9% 7.20 +16.9%

Over 2.5 65.3% 65.4% 1.53 -0.1%

Over 3.5 42.7% 42.6% 2.35 +0.3%

BTTS 55.9% 56.5% 1.77 -1.1%

Home O1.5 76.8% 73.5% 1.36 +4.5%

Away O1.5 23.2% 25.0% 4.00 -4.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 15.6%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.9%

H 65% / xG 2.9-0.9 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 9.9%

#2 3–0 9.5%

#3 2–1 8.5%

#4 3–1 8.1%

#5 4–0✓ 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Riga FC2.9

Liepaja0.9

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.3% · O3.5 PROB 42.7%

Form & verdict PPG

RIGA FC · PPG 2.56

LIEPAJA · PPG 0.89

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.56) vs P(Home)=64.7%

Win probability 1X2

Riga FC (H) 64.7%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -14.0%

Draw 17.5%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -9.6%

Liepaja (A) 17.8%

ODDS 7.20 · IMPLIED 13.9% EV +16.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Riga FC face Liepaja in Latvia - Virsliga on Sunday, June 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Riga FC a 65% chance, the draw 18% and Liepaja 18%, so Riga FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Riga FC and 0.9 for Liepaja (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Riga FC are averaging 2.56 points per game versus 0.89 for Liepaja. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +20.9%. This match finished 4-0.

Riga FC vs Liepaja Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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