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Oster vs Falkenberg Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Regular Season - 13 ·Sunday, June 21, 2026, 13:00

Oster

PPG 2.17 · HOME

UPCOMING

Falkenberg

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 64.0% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-16.3%0-24.8%0-32.4%0-4+1.3%1 1-06.9%1-110.4%1-28.0%1-34.0%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.7%2-18.7%2-26.6%2-33.4%2-4+1.8%3 3-03.2%3-14.8%3-23.7%3-31.9%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.9%4+-22.2%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 47.2% 2.25 +6.2%

Draw 23.6% 3.75 -6.9%

Away win 29.3% 2.75 -11.7%

Over 2.5 64.0% 1.50 -4.0%

Over 3.5 40.0% 2.25 -10.0%

BTTS 61.7% 1.42 -12.4%

Win probability 1X2

Oster (H) 47.2%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +6.2%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -6.9%

Falkenberg (A) 29.3%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -11.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -5.5%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob61.7%

H 47% / xG 1.7-1.5 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 1–2 8.0%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 2–0 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Oster1.7

Falkenberg1.5

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.0% · O3.5 PROB 40.0%

Form & verdict PPG

OSTER · PPG 2.17

FALKENBERG · PPG 1.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.17) > Away GOOD (1.60)

Match Preview & Prediction

Oster face Falkenberg in Sweden - Superettan on Sunday, June 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Oster a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Falkenberg 29%, so Oster are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Oster and 1.5 for Falkenberg (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Oster are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 1.60 for Falkenberg. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +6.2%.

Oster vs Falkenberg Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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