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Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Matchday 13 ·Sunday, June 21, 2026, 13:00

Helsingborg

PPG 1.43 · HOME

5 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

GIF Sundsvall

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-15.4%0-22.4%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-011.7%1-110.3%1-24.5%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-011.2%2-19.9%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.2%3-16.3%3-22.8%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.3%4+-14.7%4+-22.1%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.6% 54.1% 1.85 +2.9%

Draw 23.9% 28.6% 3.50 -9.8%

Away win 20.5% 23.8% 4.20 -8.3%

Over 2.5 54.0% 51.8% 1.93 +4.2%

Over 3.5 32.6% 29.9% 3.35 +9.2%

BTTS 52.6% 57.1% 1.75 -8.0%

Home O1.5 55.9% 52.6% 1.90 +6.2%

Away O1.5 27.9% 30.3% 3.30 -4.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 80 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -3.9%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-2

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.6%

H 56% / xG 1.9-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–0 11.2%

#3 1–0 11.7%

#4 2–1 9.9%

#5 0–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Helsingborg1.9

GIF Sundsvall0.9

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.0% · O3.5 PROB 32.6%

Form & verdict PPG

HELSINGBORG · PPG 1.43

GIF SUNDSVALL · PPG 0.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.43) vs P(Home)=55.6%

Win probability 1X2

Helsingborg (H) 55.6%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV +2.9%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -9.8%

GIF Sundsvall (A) 20.5%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -8.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Helsingborg face GIF Sundsvall in Sweden - Superettan on Sunday, June 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Helsingborg a 56% chance, the draw 24% and GIF Sundsvall 21%, so Helsingborg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Helsingborg and 0.9 for GIF Sundsvall (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Helsingborg are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 0.60 for GIF Sundsvall. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +12.5%. This match finished 5-2.

Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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