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Brage vs Varnamo Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Matchday 13 ·Sunday, June 21, 2026, 13:00

Brage

PPG 0.60 · HOME

5 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Varnamo

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.9% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a clear edge.

+10.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-13.1%0-22.1%0-31.0%0-4+0.4%1 1-05.5%1-17.5%1-25.1%1-32.3%1-4+1.1%2 2-06.7%2-19.1%2-26.2%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-05.4%3-17.3%3-25.0%3-32.3%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-05.7%4+-17.8%4+-25.3%4+-32.4%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.2% 47.6% 2.10 +13.8%

Draw 21.6% 27.4% 3.65 -12.7%

Away win 24.2% 32.3% 3.10 -15.0%

Over 2.5 65.9% 59.9% 1.67 +10.1%

Over 3.5 45.0% 37.7% 2.65 +19.3%

BTTS 63.4% 65.4% 1.53 -3.0%

Home O1.5 60.3% 54.1% 1.85 +11.6%

Away O1.5 34.4% 42.0% 2.38 -18.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 80 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -3.9%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-1

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.4%

H 54% / xG 2.4-1.4 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.1%

#2 1–1 7.5%

#3 3–1 7.3%

#4 2–0 6.7%

#5 2–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Brage2.4

Varnamo1.4

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.9% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BRAGE · PPG 0.60

VARNAMO · PPG 0.50

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.60), Away POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

Brage (H) 54.2%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +13.8%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -12.7%

Varnamo (A) 24.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -15.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Brage face Varnamo in Sweden - Superettan on Sunday, June 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Brage a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Varnamo 24%, so Brage are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Brage and 1.4 for Varnamo (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Brage are averaging 0.60 points per game versus 0.50 for Varnamo. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +45.5%. This match finished 5-1.

Brage vs Varnamo Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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