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FS Jelgava vs Tukums Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Regular Season - 19 ·Sunday, June 21, 2026, 13:00

FS Jelgava

PPG 0.89 · HOME

UPCOMING

Tukums

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-19.2%0-28.3%0-34.9%0-4+3.3%1 1-06.1%1-110.8%1-29.7%1-35.8%1-4+3.9%2 2-03.6%2-16.4%2-25.7%2-33.4%2-4+2.3%3 3-01.4%3-12.5%3-22.2%3-31.3%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.9%4+-20.8%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 29.0% 2.25 -20.8%

Draw 24.9% 3.45 -8.5%

Away win 46.2% 2.75 +27.1%

Over 2.5 59.6% 1.77 +5.5%

Over 3.5 36.3% 2.95 +7.1%

BTTS 55.9% 1.60 -10.6%

Win probability 1X2

FS Jelgava (H) 29.0%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -20.8%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -8.5%

Tukums (A) 46.2%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV +27.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 59%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 45%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob55.9%

A 46% / xG 1.2-1.8 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 1–2 9.7%

#3 0–2 8.3%

#4 0–1 9.2%

#5 0–0 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FS Jelgava1.2

Tukums1.8

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.3%

Form & verdict PPG

FS JELGAVA · PPG 0.89

TUKUMS · PPG 0.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: POOR (0.89) > Away POOR (0.50)

Match Preview & Prediction

FS Jelgava face Tukums in Latvia - Virsliga on Sunday, June 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FS Jelgava a 29% chance, the draw 25% and Tukums 46%, so Tukums are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for FS Jelgava and 1.8 for Tukums (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FS Jelgava are averaging 0.89 points per game versus 0.50 for Tukums. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +54.4%.

FS Jelgava vs Tukums Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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