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Arendal vs Traef Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 1

Matchday 11 ·Sunday, June 21, 2026, 10:00

Arendal

PPG 0.60 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Traef

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-110.8%0-29.3%0-35.3%0-4+3.4%1 1-06.6%1-111.3%1-29.7%1-35.6%1-4+3.5%2 2-03.5%2-15.9%2-25.1%2-32.9%2-4+1.8%3 3-01.2%3-12.1%3-21.8%3-31.0%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.7%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.0% 42.0% 2.38 -18.6%

Draw 24.9% 28.6% 3.50 -7.7%

Away win 46.2% 39.2% 2.55 +17.8%

Over 2.5 54.0% 61.7% 1.62 -12.5%

Over 3.5 33.4% 40.0% 2.50 -16.5%

BTTS 55.9% 67.6% 1.48 -17.3%

Home O1.5 36.4% 51.3% 1.95 -29.0%

Away O1.5 50.8% 48.8% 2.05 +4.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -46.8%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob55.9%

A 46% / xG 1.0-1.7 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 1–2 9.7%

#3 0–2 9.3%

#4 0–1 10.8%

#5 0–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Arendal1.0

Traef1.7

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.0% · O3.5 PROB 33.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ARENDAL · PPG 0.60

TRAEF · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.25) vs Home POOR (0.60)

Win probability 1X2

Arendal (H) 29.0%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -18.6%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -7.7%

Traef (A) 46.2%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +17.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Arendal face Traef in Norway - 2. Division - Group 1 on Sunday, June 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Arendal a 29% chance, the draw 25% and Traef 46%, so Traef are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Arendal and 1.7 for Traef (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Arendal are averaging 0.60 points per game versus 1.25 for Traef. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +23.4%. This match finished 3-1.

Arendal vs Traef Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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