Today / Australia - Queensland NPL / Q. Lions vs Rochedale

Q. Lions vs Rochedale Prediction— Australia - Queensland NPL

Regular Season - 15 ·Sunday, June 21, 2026, 07:00

Q. Lions

PPG 2.20 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Rochedale

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 82.6% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.5%0-10.5%0-20.2%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-02.2%1-12.1%1-21.0%1-30.3%1-4+0.1%2 2-04.8%2-14.5%2-22.2%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.9%3-16.6%3-23.1%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-024.3%4+-123.1%4+-210.9%4+-33.5%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 72.7% 1.14 -17.1%

Draw 17.8% 7.00 +14.8%

Away win 9.5% 13.00 +14.1%

Over 2.5 82.6% 1.22 +0.8%

Over 3.5 57.1% 1.62 -7.5%

BTTS 61.7% 1.62 -0.1%

Win probability 1X2

Q. Lions (H) 72.7%

ODDS 1.14 · IMPLIED 87.7% EV -17.1%

Draw 17.8%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +14.8%

Rochedale (A) 9.5%

ODDS 13.00 · IMPLIED 7.7% EV +14.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 89%

BTTS 72%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 1.8%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 78%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)4.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob61.7%

H 73% / xG 4.3-0.9 / O2.5 83% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 4–0 7.5%

#2 4–1 7.1%

#3 3–0 6.9%

#4 3–1 6.6%

#5 5–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Q. Lions4.3

Rochedale0.9

COMBINED 5.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 82.6% · O3.5 PROB 57.1%

Form & verdict PPG

Q. LIONS · PPG 2.20

ROCHEDALE · PPG 0.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.20), Away POOR (0.33) - Strong consensus

Match Preview & Prediction

Q. Lions face Rochedale in Australia - Queensland NPL on Sunday, June 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Q. Lions a 73% chance, the draw 18% and Rochedale 10%, so Q. Lions are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.3 for Q. Lions and 0.9 for Rochedale (5.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-0. There is a 83% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Q. Lions are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 0.33 for Rochedale. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +14.8%. This match finished 2-1.

Q. Lions vs Rochedale Prediction— Australia - Queensland NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - Queensland NPL Predictions