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Olympic FC vs Peninsula Prediction— Australia - Queensland NPL

Regular Season - 15 ·Sunday, June 21, 2026, 06:00

Olympic FC

PPG 1.71 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Peninsula

PPG 2.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.3% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.8%0-14.5%0-25.7%0-34.8%0-4+5.5%1 1-02.7%1-16.8%1-28.6%1-37.2%1-4+8.2%2 2-02.0%2-15.1%2-26.4%2-35.4%2-4+6.2%3 3-01.0%3-12.6%3-23.2%3-32.7%3-4+3.1%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.3%4+-21.7%4+-31.4%4+-4+1.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 20.9% 4.10 -8.6%

Draw 21.1% 4.33 -5.2%

Away win 58.0% 1.60 -7.2%

Over 2.5 66.3% 1.36 -9.8%

Over 3.5 47.5% 1.93 -8.3%

BTTS 63.4% 1.40 -11.2%

Win probability 1X2

Olympic FC (H) 20.9%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -8.6%

Draw 21.1%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -5.2%

Peninsula (A) 58.0%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -7.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 89%

BTTS 72%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 1.8%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 72%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)2.5 BTTS prob63.4%

A 58% / xG 1.5-2.5 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.6%

#2 1–1 6.8%

#3 1–3✓ 7.2%

#4 2–2 6.4%

#5 0–2 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Olympic FC1.5

Peninsula2.5

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.3% · O3.5 PROB 47.5%

Form & verdict PPG

OLYMPIC FC · PPG 1.71

PENINSULA · PPG 2.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.71) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.17)

Match Preview & Prediction

Olympic FC face Peninsula in Australia - Queensland NPL on Sunday, June 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Olympic FC a 21% chance, the draw 21% and Peninsula 58%, so Peninsula are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Olympic FC and 2.5 for Peninsula (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Olympic FC are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 2.17 for Peninsula. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +1.1%. This match finished 1-3.

Olympic FC vs Peninsula Prediction— Australia - Queensland NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - Queensland NPL Predictions