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Sacramento R. vs New Mexico Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Sunday, June 21, 2026, 03:00

Sacramento R.

PPG 2.00 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

New Mexico

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.2%0-110.0%0-23.5%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.7%1-112.5%1-24.4%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.0%2-17.8%2-22.7%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.6%3-13.2%3-21.1%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.3%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 45.4% 1.70 -22.8%

Draw 30.7% 3.55 +9.0%

Away win 23.9% 4.33 +2.1%

Over 2.5 37.4% 1.85 -30.8%

Over 3.5 19.1% 3.20 -23.3%

BTTS 48.0% 1.77 -15.0%

Win probability 1X2

Sacramento R. (H) 45.4%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -22.8%

Draw 30.7%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +9.0%

New Mexico (A) 23.9%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +2.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 0.9%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.0%

H 45% / xG 1.2-0.7 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.2%

#2 1–0 17.7%

#3 1–1 12.5%

#4 2–0 11.0%

#5 0–1✓ 10.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sacramento R.1.2

New Mexico0.7

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.4% · O3.5 PROB 19.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SACRAMENTO R. · PPG 2.00

NEW MEXICO · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=45.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sacramento R. face New Mexico in USA - USL Championship on Sunday, June 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sacramento R. a 45% chance, the draw 31% and New Mexico 24%, so Sacramento R. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Sacramento R. and 0.7 for New Mexico (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sacramento R. are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.80 for New Mexico. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +9.0%. This match finished 0-1.

Sacramento R. vs New Mexico Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

More USA - USL Championship Predictions