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Phoenix Rising vs Oakland Roots Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Sunday, June 21, 2026, 02:30

Phoenix Rising

PPG 1.50 · HOME

3 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Oakland Roots

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.0%0-19.1%0-25.2%0-32.0%0-4+0.7%1 1-011.1%1-112.7%1-27.2%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.7%2-18.7%2-25.0%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.5%3-14.0%3-22.3%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.9%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 45.1% 2.10 -5.3%

Draw 27.4% 3.50 -2.5%

Away win 27.5% 2.90 -12.2%

Over 2.5 49.5% 1.65 -18.3%

Over 3.5 28.1% 2.60 -16.2%

BTTS 52.6% 1.53 -19.5%

Win probability 1X2

Phoenix Rising (H) 45.1%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -5.3%

Draw 27.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -2.5%

Oakland Roots (A) 27.5%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -12.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 0.9%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-4

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.6%

H 45% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0 8.0%

#3 1–0 11.1%

#4 2–1 8.7%

#5 2–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Phoenix Rising1.4

Oakland Roots1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

PHOENIX RISING · PPG 1.50

OAKLAND ROOTS · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Match Preview & Prediction

Phoenix Rising face Oakland Roots in USA - USL Championship on Sunday, June 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Phoenix Rising a 45% chance, the draw 27% and Oakland Roots 28%, so Phoenix Rising are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Phoenix Rising and 1.1 for Oakland Roots (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Phoenix Rising are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.20 for Oakland Roots. This match finished 3-4.

Phoenix Rising vs Oakland Roots Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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