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Las Vegas L. vs Orange County Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Sunday, June 21, 2026, 02:30

Las Vegas L.

PPG 2.20 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Orange County

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.6%0-111.8%0-26.5%0-32.4%0-4+0.9%1 1-012.0%1-113.4%1-27.4%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-06.8%2-17.6%2-24.2%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.6%3-12.8%3-21.6%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.0%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 40.0% 2.25 -10.0%

Draw 28.3% 3.40 -2.3%

Away win 31.7% 2.80 -11.2%

Over 2.5 49.5% 1.77 -12.4%

Over 3.5 28.1% 2.95 -10.3%

BTTS 52.6% 1.60 -15.8%

Win probability 1X2

Las Vegas L. (H) 40.0%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -10.0%

Draw 28.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -2.3%

Orange County (A) 31.7%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -11.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 0.9%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.6%

D 28% / xG 1.1-1.1 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 10.6%

#3 1–0 12.0%

#4 0–1 11.8%

#5 2–1 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Las Vegas L.1.1

Orange County1.1

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

LAS VEGAS L. · PPG 2.20

ORANGE COUNTY · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.20) > Away GOOD (1.50)

Match Preview & Prediction

Las Vegas L. face Orange County in USA - USL Championship on Sunday, June 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Las Vegas L. a 40% chance, the draw 28% and Orange County 32%, so Las Vegas L. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Las Vegas L. and 1.1 for Orange County (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Las Vegas L. are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 1.50 for Orange County. This match finished 2-3.

Las Vegas L. vs Orange County Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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