Today / USA - USL Championship / Monterey Bay vs El Paso

Monterey Bay vs El Paso Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Sunday, June 21, 2026, 02:00

Monterey Bay

PPG 1.43 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

El Paso

PPG 1.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 62.2% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a clear edge.

+21.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-18.1%0-27.3%0-34.3%0-4+2.9%1 1-05.9%1-110.6%1-29.5%1-35.7%1-4+3.8%2 2-03.8%2-16.9%2-26.2%2-33.7%2-4+2.5%3 3-01.7%3-13.0%3-22.7%3-31.6%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.3%4+-21.2%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.1% 37.7% 2.65 -9.6%

Draw 23.6% 31.3% 3.20 -14.7%

Away win 42.3% 41.7% 2.40 +1.5%

Over 2.5 62.2% 51.3% 1.95 +21.3%

Over 3.5 40.0% 29.0% 3.45 +38.0%

BTTS 61.7% 58.8% 1.70 +4.9%

Home O1.5 43.0% 40.0% 2.50 +7.5%

Away O1.5 50.8% 43.5% 2.30 +16.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 113 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -14.2%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob61.7%

A 42% / xG 1.3-1.8 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 1–2 9.5%

#3 0–2 7.3%

#4 2–1 6.9%

#5 0–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Monterey Bay1.3

El Paso1.8

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.2% · O3.5 PROB 40.0%

Form & verdict PPG

MONTEREY BAY · PPG 1.43

EL PASO · PPG 1.83

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.43) vs Away GOOD (1.83)

Win probability 1X2

Monterey Bay (H) 34.1%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -9.6%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -14.7%

El Paso (A) 42.3%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +1.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Monterey Bay face El Paso in USA - USL Championship on Sunday, June 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Monterey Bay a 34% chance, the draw 24% and El Paso 42%, so El Paso are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Monterey Bay and 1.8 for El Paso (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Monterey Bay are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 1.83 for El Paso. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +38.0%. This match finished 1-0.

Monterey Bay vs El Paso Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

More USA - USL Championship Predictions