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Magallanes vs S. Wanderers Prediction— Chile - Primera B

Regular Season - 8 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 19:00

Magallanes

PPG 1.33 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

S. Wanderers

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.9% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-18.7%0-25.4%0-32.2%0-4+0.9%1 1-09.9%1-112.3%1-27.6%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.1%2-18.7%2-25.4%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.3%3-14.1%3-22.6%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.0%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.2% 48.8% 2.05 -15.5%

Draw 25.9% 30.3% 3.30 -14.5%

Away win 32.8% 31.3% 3.20 +5.0%

Over 2.5 49.6% 54.1% 1.85 -8.2%

Over 3.5 27.7% 31.3% 3.20 -11.4%

BTTS 53.9% 59.9% 1.67 -10.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 6.3%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob53.9%

H 41% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 1–0 9.9%

#3 2–1 8.7%

#4 0–1 8.7%

#5 1–2 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Magallanes1.4

S. Wanderers1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.6% · O3.5 PROB 27.7%

Form & verdict PPG

MAGALLANES · PPG 1.33

S. WANDERERS · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.33) vs Away GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

Magallanes (H) 41.2%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -15.5%

Draw 25.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -14.5%

S. Wanderers (A) 32.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +5.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Magallanes face S. Wanderers in Chile - Primera B on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Magallanes a 41% chance, the draw 26% and S. Wanderers 33%, so Magallanes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Magallanes and 1.2 for S. Wanderers (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Magallanes are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.67 for S. Wanderers. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +5.0%. This match finished 2-3.

Magallanes vs S. Wanderers Prediction— Chile - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

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