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Vila Nova vs Nautico Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 14 ·Saturday, June 20, 2026, 22:00

Vila Nova

PPG 2.33 · HOME

4 – 3

FULL TIME

Nautico

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.3%0-110.8%0-25.1%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.9%1-113.2%1-26.3%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.5%2-18.1%2-23.9%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.5%3-13.3%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.3%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.7% 42.7% 2.34 +4.6%

Draw 29.8% 32.3% 3.10 -4.6%

Away win 25.5% 31.7% 3.15 -11.8%

Over 2.5 43.9% 46.5% 2.15 -5.6%

Over 3.5 24.5% 25.0% 4.00 -1.2%

BTTS 48.5% 54.6% 1.83 -11.2%

Home O1.5 42.9% 40.8% 2.45 +5.1%

Away O1.5 29.1% 33.3% 3.00 -7.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 130 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 20.2%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-3

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.5%

H 45% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 11.3%

#3 1–0 13.9%

#4 0–1 10.8%

#5 2–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vila Nova1.2

Nautico1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.9% · O3.5 PROB 24.5%

Form & verdict PPG

VILA NOVA · PPG 2.33

NAUTICO · PPG 1.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.33) > Away GOOD (1.57)

Win probability 1X2

Vila Nova (H) 44.7%

ODDS 2.34 · IMPLIED 42.7% EV +4.6%

Draw 29.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -4.6%

Nautico (A) 25.5%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -11.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vila Nova face Nautico in Brazil - Serie B on Saturday, June 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vila Nova a 45% chance, the draw 30% and Nautico 26%, so Vila Nova are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Vila Nova and 1.0 for Nautico (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vila Nova are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.57 for Nautico. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +5.1%. This match finished 4-3.

Vila Nova vs Nautico Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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