Today / Brazil - Serie B / Avai vs CRB

Avai vs CRB Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 21 ·Tuesday, August 11, 2026, 22:30

Avai

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

CRB

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.5% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-17.5%0-24.5%0-31.8%0-4+0.7%1 1-09.8%1-111.8%1-27.1%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.7%2-19.3%2-25.6%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.0%3-14.8%3-22.9%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.7%4+-21.6%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.5% 36.2% 2.76 +33.9%

Draw 24.7% 31.3% 3.20 -12.6%

Away win 26.8% 39.2% 2.55 -19.0%

Over 2.5 53.7% 47.6% 2.10 +12.8%

Over 3.5 31.8% 26.3% 3.80 +20.8%

BTTS 54.5% 56.5% 1.77 -3.5%

Home O1.5 46.1% 37.7% 2.65 +22.2%

Away O1.5 36.5% 39.2% 2.55 -6.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 129 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 24.3%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.5%

H 48% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–0 9.8%

#4 0–0 6.2%

#5 2–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Avai1.6

CRB1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

AVAI · PPG 1.50

CRB · PPG 1.50

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.36 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Avai (H) 48.5%

ODDS 2.76 · IMPLIED 36.2% EV +33.9%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -12.6%

CRB (A) 26.8%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -19.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Avai face CRB in Brazil - Serie B on Tuesday, August 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Avai a 49% chance, the draw 25% and CRB 27%, so Avai are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Avai and 1.2 for CRB (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Avai are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.50 for CRB. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +22.2%.

Avai vs CRB Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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