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Athletic Club vs Criciuma Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 21 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 14:00

Athletic Club

PPG 1.60 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Criciuma

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-020.8%0-116.8%0-26.8%0-31.8%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.9%1-112.8%1-25.2%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-06.1%2-14.9%2-22.0%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-01.5%3-11.2%3-20.5%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.3%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.5% 33.8% 2.96 -6.8%

Draw 34.2% 33.8% 2.96 +1.2%

Away win 34.3% 39.7% 2.52 -13.6%

Over 2.5 34.8% 38.2% 2.62 -8.8%

Over 3.5 17.0% 19.0% 5.25 -6.5%

BTTS 45.5% 48.8% 2.05 -6.7%

Home O1.5 32.1% 30.3% 3.30 +5.9%

Away O1.5 20.4% 33.9% 2.95 -23.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 129 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 24.3%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob45.5%

D 34% / xG 0.8-0.8 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 20.8%

#2 0–1 16.8%

#3 1–1 12.8%

#4 1–0 15.9%

#5 0–2 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Athletic Club0.8

Criciuma0.8

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.8% · O3.5 PROB 17.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ATHLETIC CLUB · PPG 1.60

CRICIUMA · PPG 1.80

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.04, combined xG 1.57 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Athletic Club (H) 31.5%

ODDS 2.96 · IMPLIED 33.8% EV -6.8%

Draw 34.2%

ODDS 2.96 · IMPLIED 33.8% EV +1.2%

Criciuma (A) 34.3%

ODDS 2.52 · IMPLIED 39.7% EV -13.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Athletic Club face Criciuma in Brazil - Serie B on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Athletic Club a 32% chance, the draw 34% and Criciuma 34%, so Criciuma are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Athletic Club and 0.8 for Criciuma (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Athletic Club are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.80 for Criciuma. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +5.9%. This match finished 2-0.

Athletic Club vs Criciuma Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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