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Ceara vs Ponte Preta Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 21 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 23:30

Ceara

PPG 1.20 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ponte Preta

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 59.5% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.3%0-15.9%0-22.1%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.8%1-110.5%1-23.7%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.2%2-19.3%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.8%3-15.5%3-21.9%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.2%4+-13.7%4+-21.3%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.5% 73.5% 1.36 -19.1%

Draw 23.0% 22.7% 4.40 +0.7%

Away win 17.5% 10.6% 9.40 +38.7%

Over 2.5 51.8% 54.1% 1.85 -4.2%

Over 3.5 29.7% 32.3% 3.10 -4.8%

BTTS 49.4% 47.6% 2.10 +3.7%

Home O1.5 49.2% 65.4% 1.53 -24.7%

Away O1.5 17.4% 17.4% 5.75 +0.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 121 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 22.1%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.4%

H 60% / xG 1.8-0.7 / O2.5 52% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.8%

#2 2–0 13.2%

#3 1–1 10.5%

#4 0–0 8.3%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ceara1.8

Ponte Preta0.7

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.8% · O3.5 PROB 29.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CEARA · PPG 1.20

PONTE PRETA · PPG 0.33

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.08 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Ceara (H) 59.5%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -19.1%

Draw 23.0%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +0.7%

Ponte Preta (A) 17.5%

ODDS 9.40 · IMPLIED 10.6% EV +38.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ceara face Ponte Preta in Brazil - Serie B on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ceara a 60% chance, the draw 23% and Ponte Preta 18%, so Ceara are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Ceara and 0.7 for Ponte Preta (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ceara are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 0.33 for Ponte Preta. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +38.1%.

Ceara vs Ponte Preta Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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