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Cuiaba vs Fortaleza EC Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 21 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 21:00

Cuiaba

PPG 1.40 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Fortaleza EC

PPG 0.90 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-021.5%0-113.8%0-24.4%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-019.2%1-112.4%1-24.0%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-08.6%2-15.5%2-21.8%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.6%3-11.6%3-20.5%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.4%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.8% — — —

Draw 33.0% — — —

Away win 24.2% — — —

Over 2.5 34.8% — — —

Over 3.5 18.1% — — —

BTTS 45.5% — — —

Home O1.5 32.1% — — —

Away O1.5 17.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 129 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 24.3%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob45.5%

H 43% / xG 0.9-0.6 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 21.5%

#2 1–0 19.2%

#3 1–1✓ 12.4%

#4 0–1 13.8%

#5 2–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cuiaba0.9

Fortaleza EC0.6

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.8% · O3.5 PROB 18.1%

Form & verdict PPG

CUIABA · PPG 1.40

FORTALEZA EC · PPG 0.90

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.25, combined xG 1.54 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Cuiaba (H) 42.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 33.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Fortaleza EC (A) 24.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Cuiaba face Fortaleza EC in Brazil - Serie B on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cuiaba a 43% chance, the draw 33% and Fortaleza EC 24%, so Cuiaba are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Cuiaba and 0.6 for Fortaleza EC (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cuiaba are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.90 for Fortaleza EC. This match finished 1-1.

Cuiaba vs Fortaleza EC Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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