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Novorizontino vs Juventude Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 21 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 19:00

Novorizontino

PPG 1.89 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Juventude

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.2%0-19.4%0-23.9%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.2%1-112.7%1-25.3%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.2%2-18.6%2-23.6%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.6%3-13.9%3-21.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-11.8%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.2% 50.0% 2.00 -1.6%

Draw 27.1% 32.3% 3.10 -9.6%

Away win 23.8% 25.0% 4.00 -2.9%

Over 2.5 45.9% 39.2% 2.55 +17.0%

Over 3.5 26.6% 20.0% 5.00 +19.8%

BTTS 49.6% 47.6% 2.10 +4.2%

Home O1.5 37.4% 41.7% 2.40 -10.2%

Away O1.5 20.4% 25.0% 4.00 -11.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 129 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 24.3%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.6%

H 49% / xG 1.4-0.8 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 1–0 15.2%

#3 0–0 11.2%

#4 2–0 10.2%

#5 2–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Novorizontino1.4

Juventude0.8

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 26.6%

Form & verdict PPG

NOVORIZONTINO · PPG 1.89

JUVENTUDE · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.52 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Novorizontino (H) 49.2%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -1.6%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -9.6%

Juventude (A) 23.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -2.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Novorizontino face Juventude in Brazil - Serie B on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Novorizontino a 49% chance, the draw 27% and Juventude 24%, so Novorizontino are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Novorizontino and 0.8 for Juventude (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Novorizontino are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 1.00 for Juventude. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +28.1%. This match finished 0-1.

Novorizontino vs Juventude Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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