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Nautico Recife vs Atletico Goianiense Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 21 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 19:00

Nautico Recife

PPG 1.44 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Atletico Goianiense

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.1%0-110.6%0-25.0%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.8%1-113.2%1-26.3%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.6%2-18.2%2-23.9%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.6%3-13.4%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.4%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.9% 41.7% 2.40 +10.2%

Draw 27.5% 30.3% 3.30 -5.5%

Away win 26.6% 35.0% 2.86 -14.3%

Over 2.5 45.1% 50.0% 2.00 -9.8%

Over 3.5 24.6% 28.2% 3.55 -7.6%

BTTS 49.4% 57.8% 1.73 -14.5%

Home O1.5 34.9% 42.6% 2.35 -18.0%

Away O1.5 27.7% 37.7% 2.65 -16.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 129 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 24.3%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.4%

H 46% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 13.2%

#2 0–0 11.1%

#3 1–0 13.8%

#4 2–0 8.6%

#5 0–1 10.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nautico Recife1.2

Atletico Goianiense1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.1% · O3.5 PROB 24.6%

Form & verdict PPG

NAUTICO RECIFE · PPG 1.44

ATLETICO GOIANIENSE · PPG 1.33

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.29, combined xG 2.20 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Nautico Recife (H) 45.9%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +10.2%

Draw 27.5%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -5.5%

Atletico Goianiense (A) 26.6%

ODDS 2.86 · IMPLIED 35.0% EV -14.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nautico Recife face Atletico Goianiense in Brazil - Serie B on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nautico Recife a 46% chance, the draw 28% and Atletico Goianiense 27%, so Nautico Recife are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Nautico Recife and 1.0 for Atletico Goianiense (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nautico Recife are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.33 for Atletico Goianiense. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +0.8%. This match finished 1-1.

Nautico Recife vs Atletico Goianiense Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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