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Vila Nova vs Sport Recife Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 21 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 19:00

Vila Nova

PPG 2.56 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Sport Recife

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.1%0-18.6%0-24.5%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.8%1-112.5%1-26.6%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.6%2-19.1%2-24.8%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.2%3-14.4%3-22.3%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.2%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.0% 45.9% 2.18 +6.8%

Draw 25.1% 31.7% 3.15 -12.6%

Away win 25.8% 29.4% 3.40 -7.4%

Over 2.5 53.4% 47.6% 2.10 +12.1%

Over 3.5 31.4% 26.0% 3.85 +20.9%

BTTS 54.6% 54.6% 1.83 -0.1%

Home O1.5 45.4% 43.5% 2.30 +4.4%

Away O1.5 33.6% 32.3% 3.10 +4.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 129 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 24.3%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 49% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–0 8.1%

#3 1–0 11.8%

#4 2–1 9.1%

#5 2–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vila Nova1.5

Sport Recife1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 31.4%

Form & verdict PPG

VILA NOVA · PPG 2.56

SPORT RECIFE · PPG 1.44

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.40 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Vila Nova (H) 49.0%

ODDS 2.18 · IMPLIED 45.9% EV +6.8%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -12.6%

Sport Recife (A) 25.8%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -7.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vila Nova face Sport Recife in Brazil - Serie B on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vila Nova a 49% chance, the draw 25% and Sport Recife 26%, so Vila Nova are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Vila Nova and 1.1 for Sport Recife (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vila Nova are averaging 2.56 points per game versus 1.44 for Sport Recife. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +20.9%. This match finished 0-1.

Vila Nova vs Sport Recife Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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