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Botafogo SP vs America Mineiro Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 21 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 21:30

Botafogo SP

PPG 1.56 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

America Mineiro

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 63.0% vs bookmaker-implied 53.2% — a clear edge.

+18.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-14.0%0-21.4%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.5%1-18.6%1-23.0%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.5%2-19.3%2-23.2%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.7%3-16.7%3-22.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-08.6%4+-15.9%4+-22.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.0% 53.2% 1.88 +18.4%

Draw 21.0% 30.3% 3.30 -18.4%

Away win 15.9% 23.3% 4.30 -19.0%

Over 2.5 53.5% 41.7% 2.40 +28.4%

Over 3.5 32.6% 21.1% 4.75 +54.9%

BTTS 49.6% 48.8% 2.05 +1.7%

Home O1.5 61.8% 45.5% 2.20 +36.0%

Away O1.5 17.4% 23.8% 4.20 -16.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 129 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 24.3%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.6%

H 63% / xG 2.2-0.7 / O2.5 54% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.5%

#2 1–0 12.5%

#3 1–1 8.6%

#4 3–0 9.7%

#5 2–1✓ 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Botafogo SP2.2

America Mineiro0.7

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BOTAFOGO SP · PPG 1.56

AMERICA MINEIRO · PPG 0.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.47 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Botafogo SP (H) 63.0%

ODDS 1.88 · IMPLIED 53.2% EV +18.4%

Draw 21.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -18.4%

America Mineiro (A) 15.9%

ODDS 4.30 · IMPLIED 23.3% EV -19.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Botafogo SP face America Mineiro in Brazil - Serie B on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Botafogo SP a 63% chance, the draw 21% and America Mineiro 16%, so Botafogo SP are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Botafogo SP and 0.7 for America Mineiro (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Botafogo SP are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 0.50 for America Mineiro. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +54.9%. This match finished 2-1.

Botafogo SP vs America Mineiro Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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