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Goias vs Londrina Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 21 ·Monday, August 10, 2026, 22:30

Goias

PPG 1.78 · HOME

UPCOMING

Londrina

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.0% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.1%0-18.6%0-24.6%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.7%1-112.5%1-26.7%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.5%2-19.0%2-24.8%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.1%3-14.4%3-22.3%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.2%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.8% 54.9% 1.82 -18.5%

Draw 26.8% 29.9% 3.35 -6.1%

Away win 28.4% 22.5% 4.45 +15.8%

Over 2.5 50.7% 47.6% 2.10 +6.5%

Over 3.5 30.0% 26.0% 3.85 +15.5%

BTTS 54.0% 52.4% 1.91 +3.1%

Home O1.5 45.1% 50.0% 2.00 -9.8%

Away O1.5 33.5% 26.3% 3.80 +27.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 129 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 24.3%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.0%

H 45% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–0 8.1%

#3 1–0 11.7%

#4 2–1 9.0%

#5 2–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Goias1.4

Londrina1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.7% · O3.5 PROB 30.0%

Form & verdict PPG

GOIAS · PPG 1.78

LONDRINA · PPG 0.80

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.38 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Goias (H) 44.8%

ODDS 1.82 · IMPLIED 54.9% EV -18.5%

Draw 26.8%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -6.1%

Londrina (A) 28.4%

ODDS 4.45 · IMPLIED 22.5% EV +15.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Goias face Londrina in Brazil - Serie B on Monday, August 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Goias a 45% chance, the draw 27% and Londrina 28%, so Goias are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Goias and 1.1 for Londrina (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Goias are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 0.80 for Londrina. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +27.3%.

Goias vs Londrina Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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