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Ceara vs Botafogo SP Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 14 ·Saturday, June 20, 2026, 22:00

Ceara

PPG 1.57 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Botafogo SP

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.4%0-113.6%0-25.3%0-31.4%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.8%1-113.2%1-25.2%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-08.1%2-16.3%2-22.5%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.6%3-12.0%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.6%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.7% 53.5% 1.87 -25.8%

Draw 32.8% 30.8% 3.25 +6.6%

Away win 27.5% 22.7% 4.40 +12.6%

Over 2.5 37.4% 42.6% 2.35 -12.1%

Over 3.5 18.8% 22.2% 4.50 -9.2%

BTTS 48.2% 48.8% 2.05 -1.2%

Home O1.5 36.4% 45.5% 2.20 -19.9%

Away O1.5 23.2% 23.8% 4.20 -1.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 130 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 20.2%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.2%

H 40% / xG 1.0-0.8 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.4%

#2 1–1 13.2%

#3 1–0 16.8%

#4 0–1✓ 13.6%

#5 2–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ceara1.0

Botafogo SP0.8

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.4% · O3.5 PROB 18.8%

Form & verdict PPG

CEARA · PPG 1.57

BOTAFOGO SP · PPG 0.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.57) vs P(Home)=39.7%

Win probability 1X2

Ceara (H) 39.7%

ODDS 1.87 · IMPLIED 53.5% EV -25.8%

Draw 32.8%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +6.6%

Botafogo SP (A) 27.5%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +12.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ceara face Botafogo SP in Brazil - Serie B on Saturday, June 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ceara a 40% chance, the draw 33% and Botafogo SP 28%, so Ceara are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Ceara and 0.8 for Botafogo SP (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ceara are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 0.71 for Botafogo SP. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +12.6%. This match finished 0-1.

Ceara vs Botafogo SP Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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