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Gomel vs Dnepr Mogilev Prediction— Belarus - Premier League

Regular Season - 12 ·Saturday, June 20, 2026, 17:30

Gomel

PPG 2.00 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Dnepr Mogilev

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.3%0-16.0%0-22.2%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.6%1-110.6%1-23.9%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.9%2-19.4%2-23.4%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.6%3-15.5%3-22.0%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.0%4+-13.6%4+-21.3%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 55.9% 1.53 -14.5%

Draw 24.2% 3.50 -9.2%

Away win 19.9% 6.00 +11.6%

Over 2.5 49.5% 1.99 -1.5%

Over 3.5 28.3% 3.24 -5.0%

BTTS 48.5% 1.95 -5.4%

Win probability 1X2

Gomel (H) 55.9%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -14.5%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -9.2%

Dnepr Mogilev (A) 19.9%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +11.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 30%

Score Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.5%

H 56% / xG 1.8-0.7 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.6%

#2 2–0✓ 12.9%

#3 1–1 10.6%

#4 0–0 8.3%

#5 2–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gomel1.8

Dnepr Mogilev0.7

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.3%

Form & verdict PPG

GOMEL · PPG 2.00

DNEPR MOGILEV · PPG 0.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=55.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gomel face Dnepr Mogilev in Belarus - Premier League on Saturday, June 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gomel a 56% chance, the draw 24% and Dnepr Mogilev 20%, so Gomel are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Gomel and 0.7 for Dnepr Mogilev (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gomel are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.83 for Dnepr Mogilev. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +11.6%. This match finished 2-0.

Gomel vs Dnepr Mogilev Prediction— Belarus - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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