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Sligo Rovers vs Waterford Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Matchday 12 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 18:45

Sligo Rovers

PPG 0.80 · HOME

LAST 5

DDLDL

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Waterford

PPG 0.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWDW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.3%0-111.4%0-24.9%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.5%1-113.2%1-25.7%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.0%2-17.7%2-23.3%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.5%3-13.0%3-21.3%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.1%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.8% 48.1% 2.08 -11.0%

Draw 30.2% 29.0% 3.45 +4.2%

Away win 27.0% 29.9% 3.35 -9.6%

Over 2.5 32.7% 54.1% 1.85 -39.5%

Over 3.5 14.6% 30.8% 3.25 -52.5%

BTTS 39.5% 58.8% 1.70 -32.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 88 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -10.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 48%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob39.5%

H 43% / xG 1.2-0.9 / U2.5 33% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.5%

#2 0–0 13.3%

#3 1–1 13.2%

#4 0–1 11.4%

#5 2–0✓ 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sligo Rovers1.2

Waterford0.9

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 32.7% · O3.5 PROB 14.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SLIGO ROVERS · PPG 0.80

WATERFORD · PPG 0.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

43%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: POOR (0.80) > Away POOR (0.20)

Win probability 1X2

Sligo Rovers (H) 42.8%

ODDS 2.08 · IMPLIED 48.1% EV -11.0%

Draw 30.2%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +4.2%

Waterford (A) 27.0%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -9.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sligo Rovers face Waterford in Ireland - Premier Division on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sligo Rovers a 43% chance, the draw 30% and Waterford 27%, so Sligo Rovers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Sligo Rovers and 0.9 for Waterford (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 33% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sligo Rovers are averaging 0.80 points per game versus 0.20 for Waterford. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +4.2%. This match finished 2-0.

Sligo Rovers vs Waterford Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ireland - Premier Division Predictions