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Stabaek W vs Roa W Prediction— Norway - Toppserien

Regular Season - 11 ·Saturday, June 20, 2026, 14:00

Stabaek W

PPG 1.40 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Roa W

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 61.6% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-14.9%0-21.6%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.6%1-19.5%1-23.1%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.1%2-19.2%2-23.0%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.1%3-15.9%3-21.9%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-06.8%4+-14.4%4+-21.4%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 61.6% 1.40 -13.8%

Draw 21.0% 4.00 -9.6%

Away win 17.4% 5.80 +0.5%

Over 2.5 54.0% 1.70 -8.2%

Over 3.5 32.6% 2.46 -19.8%

BTTS 48.5% 1.70 -17.5%

Win probability 1X2

Stabaek W (H) 61.6%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -13.8%

Draw 21.0%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -9.6%

Roa W (A) 17.4%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV +0.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 28%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.5%

H 62% / xG 1.9-0.6 / O2.5 54% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.1%

#2 1–0 14.6%

#3 1–1 9.5%

#4 2–1 9.2%

#5 3–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stabaek W1.9

Roa W0.6

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.0% · O3.5 PROB 32.6%

Form & verdict PPG

STABAEK W · PPG 1.40

ROA W · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.40) > Away POOR (0.80)

Match Preview & Prediction

Stabaek W face Roa W in Norway - Toppserien on Saturday, June 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stabaek W a 62% chance, the draw 21% and Roa W 17%, so Stabaek W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Stabaek W and 0.6 for Roa W (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stabaek W are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.80 for Roa W. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +0.5%. This match finished 0-1.

Stabaek W vs Roa W Prediction— Norway - Toppserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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