Today / Brazil - Serie B / Londrina vs Athletic Club

Londrina vs Athletic Club Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Regular Season - 14 ·Saturday, June 20, 2026, 14:00

Londrina

PPG 0.83 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Athletic Club

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.5% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.6%0-113.1%0-28.9%0-34.0%0-4+1.9%1 1-09.4%1-112.8%1-28.7%1-34.0%1-4+1.8%2 2-04.6%2-16.3%2-24.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.9%3 3-01.5%3-12.1%3-21.4%3-30.6%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.6%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 28.8% 2.52 -16.4%

Draw 27.8% 3.10 -8.3%

Away win 43.4% 2.85 +23.7%

Over 2.5 49.5% 2.35 +16.3%

Over 3.5 28.1% 4.33 +13.0%

BTTS 51.5% 1.91 -1.6%

Win probability 1X2

Londrina (H) 28.8%

ODDS 2.52 · IMPLIED 39.7% EV -16.4%

Draw 27.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -8.3%

Athletic Club (A) 43.4%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV +23.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 85.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob51.5%

A 43% / xG 1.0-1.4 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 9.6%

#3 0–1 13.1%

#4 0–2 8.9%

#5 1–2 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Londrina1.0

Athletic Club1.4

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

LONDRINA · PPG 0.83

ATHLETIC CLUB · PPG 1.50

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.50) vs Home POOR (0.83)

Match Preview & Prediction

Londrina face Athletic Club in Brazil - Serie B on Saturday, June 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Londrina a 29% chance, the draw 28% and Athletic Club 43%, so Athletic Club are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Londrina and 1.4 for Athletic Club (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Londrina are averaging 0.83 points per game versus 1.50 for Athletic Club. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +23.7%. This match finished 2-0.

Londrina vs Athletic Club Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

More Brazil - Serie B Predictions