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Tromsdalen vs Stjordals-Blink Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 2

Regular Season - 11 ·Saturday, June 20, 2026, 12:30

Tromsdalen

PPG 1.80 · HOME

2 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Stjordals-Blink

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.9% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-13.3%0-22.5%0-31.3%0-4+0.7%1 1-05.0%1-17.6%1-25.8%1-32.9%1-4+1.6%2 2-05.8%2-18.8%2-26.7%2-33.4%2-4+1.8%3 3-04.4%3-16.8%3-25.2%3-32.6%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-04.4%4+-16.8%4+-25.2%4+-32.6%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 50.1% 1.48 -25.9%

Draw 22.3% 4.20 -3.8%

Away win 27.5% 5.40 +29.1%

Over 2.5 65.9% 1.45 -4.4%

Over 3.5 42.7% 2.15 -8.2%

BTTS 63.4% 1.53 -3.0%

Win probability 1X2

Tromsdalen (H) 50.1%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -25.9%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -3.8%

Stjordals-Blink (A) 27.5%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV +29.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-4

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.4%

H 50% / xG 2.3-1.5 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.8%

#2 1–1 7.6%

#3 3–1 6.8%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 1–2 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tromsdalen2.3

Stjordals-Blink1.5

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.9% · O3.5 PROB 42.7%

Form & verdict PPG

TROMSDALEN · PPG 1.80

STJORDALS-BLINK · PPG 0.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.80) vs P(Home)=50.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tromsdalen face Stjordals-Blink in Norway - 2. Division - Group 2 on Saturday, June 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tromsdalen a 50% chance, the draw 22% and Stjordals-Blink 28%, so Tromsdalen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Tromsdalen and 1.5 for Stjordals-Blink (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tromsdalen are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 0.60 for Stjordals-Blink. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +49.9%. This match finished 2-4.

Tromsdalen vs Stjordals-Blink Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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