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Junkeren vs Follo Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 2

Matchday 15 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 11:00

Junkeren

PPG 1.86 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Follo

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.4% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-16.0%0-23.2%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-010.2%1-110.8%1-25.7%1-32.0%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.3%2-19.9%2-25.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.6%3-16.0%3-23.2%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-14.1%4+-22.2%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.8% 57.8% 1.73 -5.2%

Draw 22.9% 25.3% 3.95 -5.7%

Away win 22.3% 27.0% 3.70 -10.5%

Over 2.5 60.4% 69.0% 1.45 -12.4%

Over 3.5 36.6% 46.5% 2.15 -21.3%

BTTS 54.6% 69.4% 1.44 -21.4%

Home O1.5 50.8% 65.4% 1.53 -22.3%

Away O1.5 33.9% 42.6% 2.35 -20.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 4.8%

Bet Hit 73%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 55% / xG 1.8-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.3%

#4 1–0 10.2%

#5 0–0 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Junkeren1.8

Follo1.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.4% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

JUNKEREN · PPG 1.86

FOLLO · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.76 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Junkeren (H) 54.8%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -5.2%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -5.7%

Follo (A) 22.3%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -10.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Junkeren face Follo in Norway - 2. Division - Group 2 on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Junkeren a 55% chance, the draw 23% and Follo 22%, so Junkeren are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Junkeren and 1.1 for Follo (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Junkeren are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 1.00 for Follo. This match finished 4-1.

Junkeren vs Follo Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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