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Follo vs Trygg/Lade Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 2

Regular Season - 14 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 12:00

Follo

PPG 0.57 · HOME

UPCOMING

Trygg/Lade

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.0% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-14.5%0-22.8%0-31.2%0-4+0.5%1 1-07.4%1-19.3%1-25.9%1-32.4%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.7%2-19.7%2-26.1%2-32.5%2-4+1.0%3 3-05.3%3-16.7%3-24.2%3-31.8%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-15.6%4+-23.5%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.7% 56.5% 1.77 -5.0%

Draw 22.3% 25.0% 4.00 -6.5%

Away win 24.0% 28.6% 3.50 -9.6%

Over 2.5 64.0% 69.0% 1.45 -7.2%

Over 3.5 42.1% 46.5% 2.15 -9.5%

BTTS 62.1% 69.4% 1.44 -10.6%

Home O1.5 60.1% 64.5% 1.55 -6.9%

Away O1.5 36.5% 43.5% 2.30 -16.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 4.8%

Bet Hit 73%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob62.1%

H 54% / xG 2.1-1.3 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 7.7%

#4 3–1 6.7%

#5 2–2 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Follo2.1

Trygg/Lade1.3

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.0% · O3.5 PROB 42.1%

Form & verdict PPG

FOLLO · PPG 0.57

TRYGG/LADE · PPG 0.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.82 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Follo (H) 53.7%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV -5.0%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -6.5%

Trygg/Lade (A) 24.0%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -9.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Follo face Trygg/Lade in Norway - 2. Division - Group 2 on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Follo a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Trygg/Lade 24%, so Follo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Follo and 1.3 for Trygg/Lade (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Follo are averaging 0.57 points per game versus 0.00 for Trygg/Lade. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +0.9%.

Follo vs Trygg/Lade Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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