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Hønefoss vs Ull/Kisa Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 2

Matchday 15 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 12:00

Hønefoss

PPG 2.29 · HOME

9 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Ull/Kisa

PPG 0.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 78.3% vs bookmaker-implied 83.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.6%0-10.6%0-20.3%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-02.6%1-12.5%1-21.2%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-05.3%2-15.1%2-22.5%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.2%3-17.0%3-23.4%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-022.3%4+-121.6%4+-210.5%4+-33.4%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 75.2% 78.1% 1.28 -3.7%

Draw 16.5% 18.2% 5.50 -5.5%

Away win 8.4% 14.3% 7.00 -24.7%

Over 2.5 73.8% 80.0% 1.25 -7.8%

Over 3.5 54.1% 58.8% 1.70 -8.0%

BTTS 59.9% 69.0% 1.45 -13.2%

Home O1.5 78.3% 83.3% 1.20 -6.0%

Away O1.5 28.1% 34.5% 2.90 -11.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 4.8%

Bet Hit 73%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 80%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 9-1

xG (home)4.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob59.9%

H 75% / xG 4.1-1.0 / O2.5 74% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 4–0 7.4%

#2 3–0 7.2%

#3 4–1 7.2%

#4 3–1 7.0%

#5 5–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hønefoss4.1

Ull/Kisa1.0

COMBINED 5.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.8% · O3.5 PROB 54.1%

Form & verdict PPG

HØNEFOSS · PPG 2.29

ULL/KISA · PPG 0.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +3.14 for Home, form 2.29 vs 0.43 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Hønefoss (H) 75.2%

ODDS 1.28 · IMPLIED 78.1% EV -3.7%

Draw 16.5%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV -5.5%

Ull/Kisa (A) 8.4%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV -24.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hønefoss face Ull/Kisa in Norway - 2. Division - Group 2 on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hønefoss a 75% chance, the draw 17% and Ull/Kisa 8%, so Hønefoss are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.1 for Hønefoss and 1.0 for Ull/Kisa (5.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-0. There is a 74% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hønefoss are averaging 2.29 points per game versus 0.43 for Ull/Kisa. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +0.9%. This match finished 9-1.

Hønefoss vs Ull/Kisa Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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