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Trygg/Lade vs Grorud Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 2

Matchday 15 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 14:00

Trygg/Lade

PPG 0.67 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Grorud

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.6% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-18.1%0-28.7%0-36.2%0-4+5.4%1 1-04.3%1-19.2%1-29.8%1-37.0%1-4+6.1%2 2-02.4%2-15.2%2-25.6%2-34.0%2-4+3.5%3 3-00.9%3-12.0%3-22.1%3-31.5%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.7%4+-20.8%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.5% 17.4% 5.75 +21.1%

Draw 21.6% 20.8% 4.80 +2.2%

Away win 55.0% 71.4% 1.40 -23.0%

Over 2.5 63.6% 73.5% 1.36 -13.5%

Over 3.5 41.0% 51.3% 1.95 -20.1%

BTTS 61.8% 66.7% 1.50 -7.3%

Home O1.5 32.1% 33.9% 2.95 -5.3%

Away O1.5 54.7% 76.9% 1.30 -28.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 4.8%

Bet Hit 73%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob61.8%

A 55% / xG 1.1-2.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.2%

#2 1–2 9.8%

#3 0–2 8.7%

#4 1–3 7.0%

#5 0–1✓ 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Trygg/Lade1.1

Grorud2.1

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 41.0%

Form & verdict PPG

TRYGG/LADE · PPG 0.67

GRORUD · PPG 1.43

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -1.00 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Trygg/Lade (H) 23.5%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV +21.1%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +2.2%

Grorud (A) 55.0%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -23.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Trygg/Lade face Grorud in Norway - 2. Division - Group 2 on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Trygg/Lade a 24% chance, the draw 22% and Grorud 55%, so Grorud are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Trygg/Lade and 2.1 for Grorud (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Trygg/Lade are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 1.43 for Grorud. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +32.4%. This match finished 0-1.

Trygg/Lade vs Grorud Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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