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Tromsdalen Uil vs Lørenskog Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 2

Matchday 15 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 13:30

Tromsdalen Uil

PPG 1.43 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Lørenskog

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 57.4% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-19.1%0-27.3%0-33.9%0-4+2.2%1 1-07.2%1-111.5%1-29.2%1-34.9%1-4+2.8%2 2-04.6%2-17.3%2-25.8%2-33.1%2-4+1.8%3 3-01.9%3-13.1%3-22.5%3-31.3%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.3%4+-21.0%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.5% 51.3% 1.95 -38.6%

Draw 25.1% 27.0% 3.70 -4.3%

Away win 43.5% 32.3% 3.10 +34.8%

Over 2.5 53.5% 67.6% 1.48 -20.8%

Over 3.5 33.3% 45.5% 2.20 -26.7%

BTTS 57.4% 70.4% 1.42 -18.5%

Home O1.5 36.5% 59.9% 1.67 -39.1%

Away O1.5 48.2% 46.5% 2.15 +3.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 4.8%

Bet Hit 73%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob57.4%

A 44% / xG 1.3-1.6 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 1–2 9.2%

#3 0–0 5.7%

#4 0–1 9.1%

#5 2–1 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tromsdalen Uil1.3

Lørenskog1.6

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 33.3%

Form & verdict PPG

TROMSDALEN UIL · PPG 1.43

LØRENSKOG · PPG 1.57

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.33 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Tromsdalen Uil (H) 31.5%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -38.6%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -4.3%

Lørenskog (A) 43.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +34.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tromsdalen Uil face Lørenskog in Norway - 2. Division - Group 2 on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tromsdalen Uil a 32% chance, the draw 25% and Lørenskog 44%, so Lørenskog are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Tromsdalen Uil and 1.6 for Lørenskog (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tromsdalen Uil are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 1.57 for Lørenskog. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +24.9%. This match finished 2-0.

Tromsdalen Uil vs Lørenskog Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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