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Italy - Serie A logo Italy flag Italy - Serie A Regular Season - 33 Stadio Olimpico· Rome Saturday, April 18, 2026 18:45
AS Roma logo AS Roma PPG 2.19
1-1 HIT CS3
Atalanta logo Atalanta PPG 1.40
Home· +25.3% ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage
75% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 50.1%
Odds: 2.50 EV: +25.3%
Draw 29.3%
Odds: 3.20 EV: -6.2%
Away 20.7%
Odds: 2.80 EV: -42.0%
Model lean: Home
Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 31.9% Odds: 2.00 -36.2%
Over 3.5 14.0% Odds: 3.45 -51.7%
BTTS 36.6% Odds: 1.75 -35.9%
O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-0
2nd 0-0
3rd 1-1
4th 2-0
5th 0-1

Expected Goals (xG)

AS Roma
1.28
Atalanta
0.71

Model Suggestion

Home +25.3% ROI TRACKS: Home
Tracked ROI market: Home.

Verdict & Form

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage
75%
MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.19) > Away AVERAGE (1.40)

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