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AS Roma vs Atalanta Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Regular Season - 33 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 18:45

AS Roma

PPG 2.19 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Atalanta

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 50.1% vs bookmaker-implied 40.0% — a clear edge.

+25.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.7%0-19.7%0-23.4%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.5%1-112.4%1-24.4%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.2%2-17.9%2-22.8%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.8%3-13.4%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-11.4%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.1% 40.0% 2.50 +25.3%

Draw 29.3% 31.3% 3.20 -6.2%

Away win 20.7% 35.7% 2.80 -42.0%

Over 2.5 31.9% 50.0% 2.00 -36.2%

Over 3.5 14.0% 29.0% 3.45 -51.7%

BTTS 36.6% 57.1% 1.75 -35.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -32.5%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob36.6%

H 50% / xG 1.3-0.7 / U2.5 32% / NoBTTS 37%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.5%

#2 0–0 13.7%

#3 1–1✓ 12.4%

#4 2–0 11.2%

#5 0–1 9.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AS Roma1.3

Atalanta0.7

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 31.9% · O3.5 PROB 14.0%

Form & verdict PPG

AS ROMA · PPG 2.19

ATALANTA · PPG 1.40

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.19) > Away AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

AS Roma (H) 50.1%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +25.3%

Draw 29.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -6.2%

Atalanta (A) 20.7%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -42.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

AS Roma face Atalanta in Italy - Serie A on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AS Roma a 50% chance, the draw 29% and Atalanta 21%, so AS Roma are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for AS Roma and 0.7 for Atalanta (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 32% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 37% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AS Roma are averaging 2.19 points per game versus 1.40 for Atalanta. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +25.3%. This match finished 1-1.

AS Roma vs Atalanta Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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