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Kjelsas vs Ull.Kisa Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 2

Regular Season - 11 ·Saturday, June 20, 2026, 12:00

Kjelsas

PPG 2.40 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Ull.Kisa

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 79.5% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.4%0-10.5%0-20.4%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-01.6%1-12.2%1-21.5%1-30.7%1-4+0.3%2 2-03.3%2-14.6%2-23.2%2-31.5%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.6%3-16.4%3-24.5%3-32.1%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-015.1%4+-120.9%4+-214.5%4+-36.7%4+-4+3.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 64.8% 1.30 -15.8%

Draw 17.4% 5.40 -3.6%

Away win 17.9% 6.75 +12.5%

Over 2.5 79.5% 1.30 +3.4%

Over 3.5 57.1% 1.80 +2.8%

BTTS 63.8% 1.50 -4.3%

Win probability 1X2

Kjelsas (H) 64.8%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -15.8%

Draw 17.4%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV -3.6%

Ull.Kisa (A) 17.9%

ODDS 6.75 · IMPLIED 14.8% EV +12.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 70%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)4.2 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.8%

H 65% / xG 4.2-1.4 / O2.5 80% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 4–1 6.7%

#2 3–1 6.4%

#3 5–1 5.7%

#4 4–0 4.9%

#5 4–2 4.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kjelsas4.2

Ull.Kisa1.4

COMBINED 5.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.5% · O3.5 PROB 57.1%

Form & verdict PPG

KJELSAS · PPG 2.40

ULL.KISA · PPG 0.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.40) vs P(Home)=64.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kjelsas face Ull.Kisa in Norway - 2. Division - Group 2 on Saturday, June 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kjelsas a 65% chance, the draw 17% and Ull.Kisa 18%, so Kjelsas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.2 for Kjelsas and 1.4 for Ull.Kisa (5.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-1. There is a 80% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kjelsas are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 0.60 for Ull.Kisa. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +36.9%. This match finished 3-0.

Kjelsas vs Ull.Kisa Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

More Norway - 2. Division - Group 2 Predictions