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Belshina vs T. Zhodino Prediction— Belarus - Premier League

Matchday 12 ·Saturday, June 20, 2026, 11:30

Belshina

PPG 1.67 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

T. Zhodino

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 55.3% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-113.2%0-211.0%0-36.1%0-4+3.7%1 1-06.9%1-111.5%1-29.6%1-35.3%1-4+3.2%2 2-03.0%2-15.0%2-24.2%2-32.3%2-4+1.4%3 3-00.9%3-11.4%3-21.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.4%4+-20.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 20.6% 18.2% 5.50 +8.0%

Draw 24.1% 27.8% 3.60 -7.9%

Away win 55.3% 65.4% 1.53 -15.4%

Over 2.5 54.0% 52.4% 1.91 +3.1%

Over 3.5 32.6% 32.5% 3.08 +0.4%

BTTS 52.6% 52.4% 1.91 +0.5%

Home O1.5 32.4% 21.3% 4.70 +52.3%

Away O1.5 50.8% 58.1% 1.72 -12.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -100.0%

Bet Hit 0%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob52.6%

A 55% / xG 0.9-1.7 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 0–1 13.2%

#3 0–2✓ 11.0%

#4 0–0 7.9%

#5 1–2 9.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Belshina0.9

T. Zhodino1.7

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.0% · O3.5 PROB 32.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BELSHINA · PPG 1.67

T. ZHODINO · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.67) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Belshina (H) 20.6%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +8.0%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -7.9%

T. Zhodino (A) 55.3%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -15.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Belshina face T. Zhodino in Belarus - Premier League on Saturday, June 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Belshina a 21% chance, the draw 24% and T. Zhodino 55%, so T. Zhodino are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Belshina and 1.7 for T. Zhodino (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Belshina are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 2.00 for T. Zhodino. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +52.3%. This match finished 0-2.

Belshina vs T. Zhodino Prediction— Belarus - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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