Today / USA - Major League Soccer / CF Montreal vs New York RB
CF Montreal vs New York RB Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer
Matchday 8 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 18:30
// Model verdict
Over 2.5 71% chance
Combined xG of 4.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 87.1% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5% — a clear edge.
Poisson scoreline matrix
Markets vs the line
League track record ↗
Based on 76 resolved predictions
Correct score prediction
A 45% / xG 2.4-2.6 / O2.5 87% / BTTS 84%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
Expected goals
COMBINED 4.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 87.1% · O3.5 PROB 72.7%
Form & verdict
CF MONTREAL · PPG 0.00
NEW YORK RB · PPG 1.25
No PPG data
Win probability
Match Preview & Prediction
CF Montreal face New York RB in USA - Major League Soccer on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CF Montreal a 37% chance, the draw 18% and New York RB 45%, so New York RB are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for CF Montreal and 2.6 for New York RB (4.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 87% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 84% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CF Montreal are averaging 0.00 points per game versus 1.25 for New York RB. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +70.9%. This match finished 4-1.