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CF Montreal vs New York RB Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Regular Season - 8 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 18:30

CF Montreal logo
CF Montreal
PPG 0.00 · HOME
4 – 1
FULL TIME
✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5
New York RB logo
New York RB
PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 87.1% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5% — a clear edge.

+35.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗
ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.7%0-11.8%0-22.4%0-32.1%0-4+2.5%1 1-01.7%1-14.3%1-25.6%1-34.9%1-4+5.9%2 2-02.0%2-15.1%2-26.6%2-35.7%2-4+6.9%3 3-01.5%3-14.0%3-25.2%3-34.5%3-4+5.4%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-14.1%4+-25.3%4+-34.6%4+-4+5.5%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 36.6% 40.3% 2.48 -9.2%
Draw 18.4% 26.3% 3.80 -30.1%
Away win 44.9% 40.0% 2.50 +12.3%
Over 2.5 87.1% 64.5% 1.55 +35.0%
Over 3.5 72.7% 42.6% 2.35 +70.9%
BTTS 83.7% 69.0% 1.45 +21.4%
Home O1.5
Away O1.5

League track record

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%
O2.5 61%
BTTS 68%
Score Hit 41%
ROI -3.8%
Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 63%CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 4-1
xG (home)2.4 xG (away)2.6 BTTS prob83.7%

A 45% / xG 2.4-2.6 / O2.5 87% / BTTS 84%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 6.6%
#2 2–3 5.7%
#3 1–2 5.6%
#4 3–2 5.2%
#5 2–1 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CF Montreal2.4
New York RB2.6

COMBINED 4.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 87.1% · O3.5 PROB 72.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CF MONTREAL · PPG 0.00

NEW YORK RB · PPG 1.25

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value
40%
NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

CF Montreal (H) 36.6%
ODDS 2.48 · IMPLIED 40.3% EV -9.2%
Draw 18.4%
ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -30.1%
New York RB (A) 44.9%
ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +12.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

CF Montreal face New York RB in USA - Major League Soccer on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CF Montreal a 37% chance, the draw 18% and New York RB 45%, so New York RB are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for CF Montreal and 2.6 for New York RB (4.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 87% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 84% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CF Montreal are averaging 0.00 points per game versus 1.25 for New York RB. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +70.9%. This match finished 4-1.

PredictVantage

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