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Bohemians vs Dundalk Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Matchday 21 ·Friday, June 19, 2026, 19:00

Bohemians

PPG 1.40 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLWW

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Dundalk

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.1% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-17.0%0-24.3%0-31.8%0-4+0.7%1 1-09.3%1-111.5%1-27.1%1-32.9%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.6%2-19.4%2-25.8%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-04.1%3-15.1%3-23.1%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-13.0%4+-21.9%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.6% 53.2% 1.88 -14.3%

Draw 24.7% 26.7% 3.75 -4.4%

Away win 29.8% 27.0% 3.70 +6.2%

Over 2.5 61.1% 58.8% 1.70 +3.9%

Over 3.5 36.7% 35.7% 2.80 +2.8%

BTTS 59.7% 61.7% 1.62 -3.3%

Home O1.5 51.6% 56.5% 1.77 -8.7%

Away O1.5 34.4% 36.4% 2.75 -5.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 87 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -10.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob59.7%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 2–0 7.6%

#4 1–0 9.3%

#5 0–0 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bohemians1.6

Dundalk1.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.1% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BOHEMIANS · PPG 1.40

DUNDALK · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.40), Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

Bohemians (H) 45.6%

ODDS 1.88 · IMPLIED 53.2% EV -14.3%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -4.4%

Dundalk (A) 29.8%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +6.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bohemians face Dundalk in Ireland - Premier Division on Friday, June 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bohemians a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Dundalk 30%, so Bohemians are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Bohemians and 1.2 for Dundalk (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bohemians are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.20 for Dundalk. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +6.2%. This match finished 1-2.

Bohemians vs Dundalk Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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