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UC Dublin vs Kerry Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Regular Season - 20 ·Friday, June 19, 2026, 18:45

UC Dublin

PPG 2.11 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Kerry

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 57.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-15.7%0-21.9%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.4%1-110.2%1-23.4%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.8%2-19.1%2-23.0%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-08.2%3-15.5%3-21.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.5%4+-13.7%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 57.6% 1.72 -0.9%

Draw 23.2% 3.65 -9.2%

Away win 19.1% 4.70 -6.1%

Over 2.5 49.5% 1.95 -3.5%

Over 3.5 28.3% 3.40 -2.3%

BTTS 48.5% 1.83 -11.2%

Win probability 1X2

UC Dublin (H) 57.6%

ODDS 1.72 · IMPLIED 58.1% EV -0.9%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -9.2%

Kerry (A) 19.1%

ODDS 4.70 · IMPLIED 21.3% EV -6.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -14.2%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.5%

H 58% / xG 1.8-0.7 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.4%

#2 2–0 13.8%

#3 1–1 10.2%

#4 0–0 8.6%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

UC Dublin1.8

Kerry0.7

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.3%

Form & verdict PPG

UC DUBLIN · PPG 2.11

KERRY · PPG 0.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.11) vs P(Home)=57.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

UC Dublin face Kerry in Ireland - First Division on Friday, June 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives UC Dublin a 58% chance, the draw 23% and Kerry 19%, so UC Dublin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for UC Dublin and 0.7 for Kerry (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, UC Dublin are averaging 2.11 points per game versus 0.33 for Kerry. This match finished 0-1.

UC Dublin vs Kerry Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ireland - First Division Predictions