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Cork City vs Treaty Utd Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Matchday 20 ·Friday, June 19, 2026, 18:45

Cork City

PPG 2.67 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWDW

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Treaty Utd

PPG 0.44 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLDL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 67.7% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-13.1%0-20.9%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-013.1%1-17.3%1-22.0%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.2%2-18.4%2-22.4%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.7%3-16.5%3-21.8%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-011.7%4+-16.5%4+-21.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.7% 78.1% 1.28 -13.3%

Draw 20.2% 19.2% 5.20 +3.0%

Away win 12.1% 9.8% 10.25 +14.4%

Over 2.5 61.1% 64.5% 1.55 -5.3%

Over 3.5 37.0% 42.6% 2.35 -13.1%

BTTS 48.5% 54.1% 1.85 -10.3%

Home O1.5 60.3% 74.1% 1.35 -18.6%

Away O1.5 18.0% 21.1% 4.75 -8.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 84 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 10.6%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.5%

H 68% / xG 2.3-0.6 / O2.5 61% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 15.2%

#2 1–0 13.1%

#3 3–0 11.7%

#4 2–1 8.4%

#5 1–1 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cork City2.3

Treaty Utd0.6

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.1% · O3.5 PROB 37.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CORK CITY · PPG 2.67

TREATY UTD · PPG 0.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.67), Away POOR (0.44) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Cork City (H) 67.7%

ODDS 1.28 · IMPLIED 78.1% EV -13.3%

Draw 20.2%

ODDS 5.20 · IMPLIED 19.2% EV +3.0%

Treaty Utd (A) 12.1%

ODDS 10.25 · IMPLIED 9.8% EV +14.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cork City face Treaty Utd in Ireland - First Division on Friday, June 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cork City a 68% chance, the draw 20% and Treaty Utd 12%, so Cork City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Cork City and 0.6 for Treaty Utd (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cork City are averaging 2.67 points per game versus 0.44 for Treaty Utd. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +14.4%. This match finished 4-0.

Cork City vs Treaty Utd Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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