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Cork City vs Treaty Utd Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Regular Season - 20 ·Friday, June 19, 2026, 18:45

Cork City

PPG 2.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Treaty Utd

PPG 0.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 67.7% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-13.1%0-20.9%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-013.1%1-17.3%1-22.0%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.2%2-18.4%2-22.4%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.7%3-16.5%3-21.8%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-011.7%4+-16.5%4+-21.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 67.7% 1.28 -13.3%

Draw 20.2% 5.20 +3.0%

Away win 12.1% 10.25 +14.4%

Over 2.5 61.1% 1.55 -5.3%

Over 3.5 37.0% 2.35 -13.1%

BTTS 48.5% 1.85 -10.3%

Win probability 1X2

Cork City (H) 67.7%

ODDS 1.28 · IMPLIED 78.1% EV -13.3%

Draw 20.2%

ODDS 5.20 · IMPLIED 19.2% EV +3.0%

Treaty Utd (A) 12.1%

ODDS 10.25 · IMPLIED 9.8% EV +14.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -14.2%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 56%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.5%

H 68% / xG 2.3-0.6 / O2.5 61% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 15.2%

#2 1–0 13.1%

#3 3–0 11.7%

#4 2–1 8.4%

#5 1–1 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cork City2.3

Treaty Utd0.6

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.1% · O3.5 PROB 37.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CORK CITY · PPG 2.67

TREATY UTD · PPG 0.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.67), Away POOR (0.44) - Strong consensus

Match Preview & Prediction

Cork City face Treaty Utd in Ireland - First Division on Friday, June 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cork City a 68% chance, the draw 20% and Treaty Utd 12%, so Cork City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Cork City and 0.6 for Treaty Utd (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cork City are averaging 2.67 points per game versus 0.44 for Treaty Utd. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +14.4%.

Cork City vs Treaty Utd Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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