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Bray Wanderers vs Longford Town Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Matchday 20 ·Friday, June 19, 2026, 18:45

Bray Wanderers

PPG 2.11 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWLL

5 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Longford Town

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLWD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.5 puts the goal expectation near the line. Model probability 54.0% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-17.4%0-23.2%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.6%1-111.8%1-25.1%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.8%2-19.4%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.7%3-15.0%3-22.2%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-12.8%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.3% 60.2% 1.66 -13.2%

Draw 24.2% 26.3% 3.80 -4.8%

Away win 23.5% 20.0% 5.00 +10.5%

Over 2.5 54.0% 55.6% 1.80 -2.8%

Over 3.5 32.6% 33.9% 2.95 -3.8%

BTTS 52.6% 57.8% 1.73 -9.0%

Home O1.5 48.8% 58.8% 1.70 -17.0%

Away O1.5 26.5% 29.0% 3.45 -5.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 84 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 10.6%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.6%

H 52% / xG 1.6-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 1–0 13.6%

#3 2–0 10.8%

#4 0–0 8.5%

#5 2–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bray Wanderers1.6

Longford Town0.9

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.0% · O3.5 PROB 32.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BRAY WANDERERS · PPG 2.11

LONGFORD TOWN · PPG 0.89

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.11) vs P(Home)=52.3%

Win probability 1X2

Bray Wanderers (H) 52.3%

ODDS 1.66 · IMPLIED 60.2% EV -13.2%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -4.8%

Longford Town (A) 23.5%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +10.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bray Wanderers face Longford Town in Ireland - First Division on Friday, June 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bray Wanderers a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Longford Town 24%, so Bray Wanderers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Bray Wanderers and 0.9 for Longford Town (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bray Wanderers are averaging 2.11 points per game versus 0.89 for Longford Town. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +10.5%. This match finished 5-2.

Bray Wanderers vs Longford Town Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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