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Athlone Town vs Wexford Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Matchday 20 ·Friday, June 19, 2026, 18:45

Athlone Town

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWWW

2 – 2

FULL TIME

Wexford

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.6%0-111.7%0-25.4%0-31.7%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.4%1-113.4%1-26.2%1-31.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.2%2-17.6%2-23.5%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.1%3-12.9%3-21.3%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.1%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.1% 40.0% 2.50 +12.8%

Draw 27.6% 29.9% 3.35 -4.5%

Away win 27.2% 36.8% 2.72 -15.6%

Over 2.5 48.1% 51.8% 1.93 -7.2%

Over 3.5 28.1% 30.3% 3.30 -4.4%

BTTS 49.0% 59.9% 1.67 -18.2%

Home O1.5 36.4% 43.5% 2.30 -16.3%

Away O1.5 27.9% 40.8% 2.45 -19.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 84 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 10.6%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.0%

H 45% / xG 1.1-0.9 / U2.5 48% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 12.6%

#3 1–0 14.4%

#4 0–1 11.7%

#5 2–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Athlone Town1.1

Wexford0.9

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ATHLONE TOWN · PPG 1.67

WEXFORD · PPG 0.67

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.67) vs P(Home)=45.1%

Win probability 1X2

Athlone Town (H) 45.1%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +12.8%

Draw 27.6%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -4.5%

Wexford (A) 27.2%

ODDS 2.72 · IMPLIED 36.8% EV -15.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Athlone Town face Wexford in Ireland - First Division on Friday, June 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Athlone Town a 45% chance, the draw 28% and Wexford 27%, so Athlone Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Athlone Town and 0.9 for Wexford (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Athlone Town are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.67 for Wexford. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +12.8%. This match finished 2-2.

Athlone Town vs Wexford Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ireland - First Division Predictions