Today / Ireland - Premier Division / Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers

Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Matchday 21 ·Friday, June 19, 2026, 18:45

Waterford

PPG 1.20 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWDW

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Shamrock Rovers

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDWD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-111.2%0-29.1%0-34.9%0-4+2.8%1 1-07.3%1-111.8%1-29.5%1-35.1%1-4+3.0%2 2-03.8%2-16.2%2-25.0%2-32.7%2-4+1.6%3 3-01.3%3-12.2%3-21.8%3-30.9%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.7%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.3% 20.0% 5.00 +56.5%

Draw 25.0% 25.6% 3.90 -1.5%

Away win 43.7% 61.3% 1.63 -28.8%

Over 2.5 54.0% 58.8% 1.70 -8.2%

Over 3.5 32.9% 35.7% 2.80 -7.9%

BTTS 55.9% 58.8% 1.70 -5.0%

Home O1.5 36.4% 29.9% 3.35 +21.9%

Away O1.5 50.8% 60.6% 1.65 -16.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 87 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -10.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob55.9%

A 44% / xG 1.1-1.6 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 1–2 9.5%

#3 0–1 11.2%

#4 0–2✓ 9.1%

#5 0–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Waterford1.1

Shamrock Rovers1.6

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.0% · O3.5 PROB 32.9%

Form & verdict PPG

WATERFORD · PPG 1.20

SHAMROCK ROVERS · PPG 1.36

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.20), Away AVERAGE (1.36)

Win probability 1X2

Waterford (H) 31.3%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +56.5%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -1.5%

Shamrock Rovers (A) 43.7%

ODDS 1.63 · IMPLIED 61.3% EV -28.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Waterford face Shamrock Rovers in Ireland - Premier Division on Friday, June 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Waterford a 31% chance, the draw 25% and Shamrock Rovers 44%, so Shamrock Rovers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Waterford and 1.6 for Shamrock Rovers (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Waterford are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.36 for Shamrock Rovers. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +56.5%. This match finished 0-2.

Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ireland - Premier Division Predictions