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St. Patricks vs Sligo Rovers Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Matchday 21 ·Friday, June 19, 2026, 18:45

St. Patricks

PPG 2.20 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWWL

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Sligo Rovers

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLDL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 64.0% vs bookmaker-implied 79.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-14.2%0-21.1%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-016.2%1-18.4%1-22.2%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-016.1%2-18.4%2-22.2%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.7%3-15.5%3-21.4%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-08.4%4+-14.3%4+-21.1%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.0% 79.4% 1.26 -19.4%

Draw 21.7% 20.0% 5.00 +5.1%

Away win 14.3% 8.0% 12.50 +47.3%

Over 2.5 49.5% 59.9% 1.67 -17.3%

Over 3.5 28.3% 38.2% 2.62 -15.5%

BTTS 48.4% 48.8% 2.05 -0.8%

Home O1.5 55.9% 72.5% 1.38 -22.9%

Away O1.5 18.0% 16.7% 6.00 +4.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 87 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -10.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob48.4%

H 64% / xG 2.0-0.5 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0✓ 16.1%

#2 1–0 16.2%

#3 3–0 10.7%

#4 1–1 8.4%

#5 0–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

St. Patricks2.0

Sligo Rovers0.5

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ST. PATRICKS · PPG 2.20

SLIGO ROVERS · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.20) vs P(Home)=64.0%

Win probability 1X2

St. Patricks (H) 64.0%

ODDS 1.26 · IMPLIED 79.4% EV -19.4%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +5.1%

Sligo Rovers (A) 14.3%

ODDS 12.50 · IMPLIED 8.0% EV +47.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

St. Patricks face Sligo Rovers in Ireland - Premier Division on Friday, June 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives St. Patricks a 64% chance, the draw 22% and Sligo Rovers 14%, so St. Patricks are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for St. Patricks and 0.5 for Sligo Rovers (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, St. Patricks are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 0.80 for Sligo Rovers. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +47.3%. This match finished 2-0.

St. Patricks vs Sligo Rovers Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ireland - Premier Division Predictions